Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 100537 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive and amplifying polar branch of westerlies is forecast over the northern CONUS Tuesday and Tuesday night. Within that air stream, a short-wave trough will move through the Northeast, while an upstream system intensifies over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude system over TX is expected to de-amplify while advancing into the lower MS Valley. At the surface, a lee cyclone and attending trough initially over the High Plains will shift east through the northern and central Plains into the Midwest, in tandem with the previously mentioned upper-air system. Increasing southerly flow ahead of that frontal system will support the poleward advance of a partially modified continental-polar air mass from the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along the middle TX Coast Tuesday morning, and from the middle TX Coast into southern LA Tuesday night, within a zone of low-level warm advection and weak instability preceding the midlevel wave. Along the Pacific Northwest Coast, moist onshore flow coupled with a slight steepening of midlevel lapse rates will yield weak instability and the potential for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Over south FL, slight cooling aloft will combine with a moist PBL to yield MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg by afternoon when isolated thunderstorms appear possible. Elsewhere, isolated lightning strikes appear possible over northern or central TX, northern New England, and perhaps the eastern Dakotas Tuesday afternoon into evening. Lightning duration and coverage in those areas appear too limited to warrant general thunderstorm/10% probability contours. ..Mead.. 11/10/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z