Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across TX

SPC AC 081614 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE MIDDLE-LOWER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado appear possible. ...Middle-lower TX coast today... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will drift slowly eastward and weaken through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone along the middle-lower TX coast will provide a focus for thunderstorms rooted at the surface, where boundary-layer dewpoints will remain near 70 F. Per the 12z observed soundings/VWPs/model forecasts, deep-layer vertical shear will remain sufficient for some embedded rotating storms, with the relatively stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature expected along the north edge of the surface-based buoyancy with a small MCV just south of CRP. Poor midlevel lapse rates will temper the overall severe threat, though an isolated, weak tornado and/or localized wind damage will be possible with embedded circulations today. Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms will remain possible from the Edwards Plateau into interior south TX in a moist environment with ascent and weak buoyancy atop the cooler near-surface air mass. ...Pacific Northwest and the lower Great Lakes... The potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection will diminish across northwest WA by about midday as a midlevel trough moves inland and height rises ensue. A separate midlevel trough will continue southeastward over the lower Great Lakes by this evening into early tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures and weak buoyancy aided by the relatively warm lakes will support convection that could become sufficiently deep to support charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 11/08/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z