Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 100035 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... Within the southern fringe of a broader precipitation band preceding a vigorous short-wave trough, embedded convective elements sufficiently deep for lightning generation have recently moved onto the OR coast. Modification of the 00Z UIL sounding for a slightly warmer and more moist PBL farther to the south yields a narrow CAPE profile extending upwards into the -10 to -20 C layer with MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg, which is consistent with the lightning observations. A similar thermodynamic environment is expected to spread inland this evening into tonight, supporting the continuation of sporadic lightning occurrences. Turbulent downward mixing of stronger flow aloft may yield a few strong wind gusts; however, severe weather is not expected. ...Portions of Deep South Texas to the middle Texas Coast.... As of 00Z, the most vigorous convection was located offshore to the southeast of Brownsville, within a zone of stronger surface-based buoyancy. Farther north along the lower to middle TX Coast, a modest low-level warm-advection regime is expected to persist overnight, in which a few elevated thunderstorms will remain possible amidst a marginally unstable environment (per 00Z BRO/CRP soundings). ..Mead.. 11/10/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z