Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across WA

SPC AC 080033 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts may occur over portions of northwest Washington this evening into tonight. ...Northwest Washington... Level-1/Marginal Risk wind probabilities have been expanded inland with this forecast update to account for a potentially wider corridor of severe wind gust potential, mainly in the 08/02-05z timeframe. A strongly forced prefrontal rainband currently off the coast will move onshore within the next hour or so before reaching the I-5 corridor by 08/05-06z. Very strong low-level flow precedes the rainband with KLGX VWP data indicating 50-55 kt southerly winds in the lowest km AGL. While instability remains quite weak (MUCAPE of 100-150 J/kg, per the 00Z UIL sounding), downdraft-aided turbulent mixing in the vicinity of embedded bowing/LEWP structures may be sufficient to support isolated severe wind gusts as the band moves inland. A few strong to severe wind gusts and greater lightning potential may accompany widely scattered, post-frontal convection moving onshore in tandem with a plume of steepening 0-3 km lapse rates. ...Central Texas into the lower Rio Grande Valley... Downstream from an upper low over northwest Mexico, a weak perturbation has advanced into west-central TX this evening with a secondary, stronger impulse forecast to overspread the Edwards Plateau overnight. Forcing for ascent associated with those features will interact with a marginally unstable air mass (MUCAPE WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z