Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 091954 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Halbert-E.. 11/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent satellite imagery shows an elongated upper low centered over the TX Big Bend vicinity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the broad warm-air advection regime downstream of this low from central and south TX across much of the TX Coastal Plains into southeast TX. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings sampled a seasonally moist airmass characterized by PW values over 1.8" and poor lapse rates. General expectation is for showers and elevated thunderstorms to continue throughout the day while diminishing in strength and intensity as an embedded shortwave trough continues northeastward. The warm sector, which is characterized by upper 60s dewpoints, is forecast to remain largely offshore as the associated surface low drifts very slowly eastward. These factors should all act to keep the overall severe weather threat very low. Guidance also suggests a fast-moving shortwave trough will progress through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, with the primary frontal band arriving close to 00Z. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will be fairly cold, but most of the convection should be shallow. Enhanced southwesterly flow will exist across the region, but the limited instability and shallow storm depth should limit the risk for severe gusts. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z