Severe Weather Outlook — today's thunderstorm & tornado risk

SPC AC 040037 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible this evening and tonight across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low in the mid Missouri Valley with a trough extending southward into the eastern part of the southern Plains. Cyclonic mid-level southwesterly flow is located ahead of the trough in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this flow, a broad band of precipitation is ongoing from central Illinois southward to Louisiana. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring on the southern end of the band. Ahead of this band, instability is generally weak except in the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability. Although moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, low-level lapse rates are very poor. In spite of this, strong low-level shear coupled with the instability could be enough for an isolated potential for severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. However, any severe threat will remain marginal this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 11/04/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

SPC AC 031716 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday. ...Southeast States... A broad upper trough will continue to move slowly eastward across the central/eastern states on Wednesday, with a potent shortwave trough affecting the southern Appalachians. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Wednesday morning over middle TN and northern AL, with activity persisting and moving eastward into parts of east TN/GA/western Carolinas through the afternoon. Strong flow aloft may result in localized damaging wind gusts, but instability will be very weak. A small 5% wind area was considered for northeast AL/northwest GA, but given the weak CAPE fields will defer to later updates. ..Hart.. 11/03/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

SPC AC 031838 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday. ...Southeast States... A series of shortwave troughs will track eastward across the central and eastern US on Thursday, with a moist and marginally unstable air mass remaining over the southeast states. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible from FL northward into NV/VA. Low-level winds are forecast to weaken through the period over this area, and given the weak CAPE values, no organized severe storms are anticipated. ...KS/OK... An upper trough and associated cold pool aloft will track from the central Rockies into parts of KS/OK on Thursday. This will result in a pocket of steep mid level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible in this area. ..Hart.. 11/03/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z