Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 080533 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms appear unlikely across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...South Texas... An upper low over Sonora, Mexico, late this evening is forecast to move/develop toward the TX Big Bend with an attending belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow present over central and southern TX. The 00Z Brownsville and Corpus Christi, TX, soundings sampled a seasonably moist air mass (e.g., PW of 1.7") advancing inland ahead of the upper-air system with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to rise into the low to mid 70s across Deep South TX on Sunday. That moisture will contribute to at least marginal instability, which, coupled with persistent low/midlevel warm advection downstream from the upper low, will foster multiple waves of thunderstorms during the forecast period. A vertically veering wind profile with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast across the region on Sunday, which would conditionally support supercell storm modes and an associated severe weather threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists in the extent to which the air mass can destabilize due to the deleterious effects of convective outflow and cloud cover arising from early-day storms. As such, no severe weather probabilities will be included in this forecast. ...Washington... While the strongest forcing for ascent will shift away from the region Sunday morning, steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer may support a few sufficiently deep convective updrafts for lightning generation into afternoon. ...Lower Great Lakes and Maine... Isolated lightning occurrences appear possible over ME Sunday morning in association with an upper low moving through the area. Sporadic lightning activity may also occur in the lee of the lower Great Lakes Sunday night within a zone of strong dynamic ascent/midlevel cooling present on the cyclonic side of mid/upper-level wind maxima progressing into the region. In both areas, areal lightning coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ..Mead.. 11/08/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z