Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 090532 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...South Texas... An upper low initially near the Big Bend region at 12z Monday is forecast to weaken through the day while a series of embedded perturbations track from the lower Rio Grande Valley along the coast. Forcing for ascent associated with those features along with persistent low/mid-level warm advection is likely to sustain scattered thunderstorms through the morning with areal coverage gradually decreasing by mid to late afternoon. Similar to Sunday, the kinematic environment will feature veering winds with height with around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, which would conditionally support supercell storm modes and some severe weather threat. While a strong storm or two is possible Monday morning, it appears that outflow associated with early-day convection is likely to limit more robust air mass destabilization and an associated severe weather threat. ...Pacific Northwest... A short-wave trough is forecast to move onshore Monday afternoon with associated height falls/midlevel cooling coinciding with moist, onshore flow in the low levels. Those processes will yield weak instability (MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) with forecast soundings indicating the potential for convective updrafts to reach sufficient depth for episodic lightning activity from the coast inland to at least the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening. Somewhat analogous to Saturday, strong low-level winds are forecast ahead of the surface front, suggesting some potential for a few strong wind gusts in association with any deeper convective elements moving onshore. ...South Florida... A few lightning strikes may occur with diurnally enhanced thunderstorms Monday afternoon amidst a moist and marginally unstable air mass. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm and dry nose centered in the 650-600 mb layer, which will likely inhibit the majority of convective updrafts from reaching sufficient depth for lightning discharge. ..Mead.. 11/09/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z