Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across TX

SPC AC 081240 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado appear possible. ...South Texas... Downstream of a mid/upper-level trough/low over northern Mexico, thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of south TX. A weak surface low/inverted trough is also analyzed across this region, with greater low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints) present across the lower TX Coast. Weak surface-based instability should develop this morning as filtered daytime heating occurs, and strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur near the coast in the vicinity of Corpus Christi. Modest enhancement to the low-level winds (southeasterly around 20-25 kt; reference 12Z CRP observed sounding) and sufficient deep-layer shear should exist for organized updrafts, including marginal supercell structures (with one attempt already observed southwest of KCRP). While low/mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, any sustained surface-based supercell could produce isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado given effective SRH around 100 m2/s2. Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms are forecast across a broader portion of south-central TX, as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough/low overlaps with a weakly unstable airmass inland. ...Pacific Northwest... Thunderstorm potential should continue to diminish this morning as large-scale ascent associated with a strong mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. But, occasional lightning flashes may still occur with post-frontal low-topped convection in the short term, as cold mid-level temperatures support weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/08/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z