Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 091240 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Generally elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of south TX to the north of a weak inverted surface trough. This convection is being aided by large-scale ascent and modest low-level warm advection occurring ahead of a weak upper trough over west TX/northern Mexico. Weak MUCAPE and poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit the severe threat this morning (reference the 12Z observed CRP/BRO soundings). Also, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms over land appears lower than yesterday, and any stronger thunderstorms should tend to focus offshore through the morning into early afternoon. Another fast-moving upper trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest this afternoon through tonight. Surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s and filtered daytime heating should allow MUCAPE up to 100-300 J/kg to develop along/ahead of a low-topped band of convection expected to move quickly eastward across coastal WA/OR this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will be fairly cold. While strong low/mid-level winds veering with height appear conditionally favorable for organized updrafts, the meager instability should tend to limit the risk for severe gusts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/09/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z