Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across WA

SPC AC 071950 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts may occur along the immediate northwest Washington coast late this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Halbert-E.. 11/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Within the primary northern stream, embedded shortwave troughs will move from the lower Great Lakes to New England and to the Pacific Northwest coast, respectively. Weak buoyancy rooted close to 850 mb could support isolated lightning flashes in the zone of ascent across southern and eastern Maine. A strong shortwave trough and associated cold front will reach the WA coast late this evening/early tonight, with strong winds near 100 kt in the mid levels and 55-70 kt close to 850 mb. A forced frontal rain band is a possibility late this evening with the potential for strong gusts to mix down to the surface within the band. After frontal passage, weak buoyancy will develop in the steeper lapse rate environment, where isolated lightning flashes will be possible with low-topped convection. There is enough convective wind potential along the immediate northwest WA coast to justify an addition of a 5% wind/MRGL area. Otherwise, the potential for occasional elevated thunderstorms (rooted near 700 mb) will continue across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. Convection rooted near the surface will be possible across deep South TX per the 12z BRO sounding. While a bit of an increase in deep-layer vertical shear is expected later today, poor lapse rate profiles and low-level vertical shear suggest little threat for organized severe storms. Farther east, isolated convective showers will be possible across southeast FL along a diffuse frontal zone, though minimal forcing for ascent and the potential for substantial dry entrainment in the mid levels will limit any thunderstorm potential. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z