Severe weather outlook: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms across NC, VA

SPC AC 061944 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to clear behind ongoing convection. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Halbert-E.. 11/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026/ ...Eastern NC... An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today, providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the 19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area. ...Southeast AZ... A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores, the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this time. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z