Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 071246 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower Great Lakes this morning will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Modest low-level warm advection and cool mid-level temperatures may support weak but sufficient MUCAPE for occasional lightning flashes with convection that develops across parts of New England through the day. Instability is expected to remain too limited to support organized severe thunderstorms. Mainly elevated thunderstorms should occur through the period across parts of west/central/south TX, as a separate mid-level trough/low translates east-southeastward from the Southwest into north-central Mexico. A surface front will generally remain offshore from the lower TX Coast, but large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and a modest increase in low-level warm advection late this afternoon into tonight will aid the development of MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg, which should support some lightning with this elevated activity. Across the coastal Pacific Northwest, a low-topped line of convection is forecast to approach the WA Coast after 00Z, with strong low and mid-level winds expected to be present ahead of an approaching upper trough. Low 50s surface dewpoints and minimal diurnal heating both appear marginal to support more than very weak surface-based instability, and updrafts may not reach sufficient height to induce charge separation and lightning flashes. Even so, strong/gusty winds may occur with this convection as it spreads inland across parts of coastal WA this evening/tonight. However, given the very limited thermodynamic environment, confidence in severe gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 11/07/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z