Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across DE, MD, NC, SC

SPC AC 060553 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic Coast. ...Carolinas/Atlantic Coast... An upper low over eastern Great Lakes at the start of the forecast period is forecast merge with a shortwave trough moving from the mid MS Valley across the central Appalachians. A belt of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will accompany the low across much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front and broad area of low pressure will stretch from southern New England to eastern North Carolina. The low and front should gradually strengthen as they and the upper trough move offshore into early Saturday morning. Early in the period ahead of the cold front, a band of scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from southern New England to the Carolinas, associated with continued northward advection of mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints. Enhanced flow aloft will overspread the area through the morning generally parallel to the advancing front. The strongest upper-level winds will likely remain on the cool side of the boundary, but model soundings show effective shear values increasing to 30-40 kt within the warm sector by late morning. Given the presence of the unseasonably humid air mass, diurnal heating and destabilization will tend to be muted by residual cloud cover, especially with northward extent. Still, cooling mid-level temperatures and modest buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) should be sufficient to maintain isolated stronger storms eastward through midday. Some organization into linear clusters or short bowing segments is possible which would support a risk for damaging gusts. Adequate hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km could also support a brief tornado before convection weakens and moves offshore later in the afternoon/early evening. ...AZ... A second upper trough will move from the southern Great Basin into the Southwest today and tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany the upper trough, steeping mid-level lapse rates and allowing for weak elevated buoyancy to develop. However the limited instability and vertical shear should preclude a severe risk outside of sporadic hail with an isolated stronger storm. ..Lyons/Halbert-K.. 11/06/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z