Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across DE, MD, NC, NJ

SPC AC 061258 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... An upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes this morning will advance eastward over the Atlantic Coast states through the period. An associated 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will likewise translate eastward today across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. A weak surface low analyzed over the southern Mid-Atlantic will develop northeastward towards southern New England along a front through the afternoon. A rather moist low-level airmass will remain in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally ranging in the mid to upper 60s. 12Z observed soundings from OKX/GSO show a nearly saturated boundary layer and rather poor low/mid level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer). Combined with widespread cloudiness evident on recent visible satellite imagery, these modest lapse rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak instability and limit overall convective intensity. Still, ongoing convection this morning along/ahead of the front may pose some risk for isolated damaging winds given 30-40 kt of southwesterly deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization and potential for clustering. The threat for strong/gusty winds may extend into parts of southern New England, but latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings suggest little potential for surface-based instability to develop across this region. Somewhat better diurnal heating should occur with southward extent, and greater instability (MLCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg) is forecast to develop this afternoon across the central/eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. A lobe of mid-level vorticity and associated forcing for ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough/low should overspread this region and support additional thunderstorm development by 16-18Z along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. A mix of loosely organized clusters and marginal supercell structures should pose a risk for occasional damaging winds, especially if low-level lapse rates can become steepened through filtered daytime heating. While low-level flow and related shear are not forecast to be overly strong, a brief tornado or two also appears possible. This activity should weaken and/or move offshore by early evening. ...Southeast Arizona... Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany an upper trough progressing southeastward across the Southwest today, and weak instability should develop this afternoon over parts of southeast AZ. Deep-layer shear appears marginal for organized updrafts, but occasional small hail could occur with the strongest cores that develop. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 11/06/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z