Severe weather outlook: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms across NC, VA

SPC AC 061556 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic. ...Eastern NC... An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today, providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the 19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area. ...Southeast AZ... A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores, the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this time. ..Hart/Kerr.. 11/06/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z