Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across AL, GA, KY, NC

SPC AC 041944 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk area to clear behind the ongoing convection. See MCD#2444 and the previous discussion below for more details. ..Halbert-E.. 11/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026/ ...Southeast... Moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft is present over the southeast states today, with water vapor imagery showing a pronounced shortwave trough over MS/AL. As this trough translates eastward today, scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of AL/GA/SC and east TN. Two regimes appear to pose a risk of isolated strong/severe storms later today. The first area is along the primary cold front over eastern AL and western GA. Most recent CAM solutions suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop along the front by mid-afternoon, with at least pockets of heating occurring out ahead. A few supercells are possible. Forecast soundings show weakening low-level winds and some veering in areas of better heating. This may tend to reduce the tornado risk, but the strongest cells could be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Another area of concern will stretch from central/northeast GA into upstate SC later today. Low-level winds will remain backed and moderately strong in this area, leading to favorable shear profiles for a tornado or two in the more persistent storms. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z