Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across AL, GA, NC, SC

SPC AC 050057 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery showed an upper low over MN/WI with a second upper low, moving from the Four Corners into the central Rockies. A pronounced shortwave trough over MS and AL is forecast to move eastward ahead of a belt of enhanced mid-level flow that extends over the lower third of the CONUS between the two more dominant upper-level cyclones. An associated surface low over the Great Lakes will move eastward as a trailing cold front moves across the Midwest and Southeast. ...Southeast... Evening radar and satellite observations show a band of predominately disorganized convection has evolved along and ahead of the cold front from eastern TN, to south-central AL, while a more isolated convective cluster was ongoing over eastern GA. The environment ahead of the front remains moist, with mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints across much of the Southeast. However, lapse rates remain quite poor generally around 6 C/km (00z BMX sounding) which, along with the loss of diurnal heating is limiting buoyancy. Still, area RAP profiles show around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE persisting into the evening across eastern AL and into GA, which should be sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. The enhanced flow aloft is also supporting marginal deep-layer shear (30-35 kt) for storm organization with clusters and transient supercells having been observed. Despite deep and low-level shear forecast to weaken overnight, modestly curved hodographs may support occasional rotation, with a low-end risk for a brief tornado or damaging gust this evening. Eventually storms should weaken as the environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z