Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 050551 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Lakes is forecast to strengthen through the day today as it merges with a weaker shortwave trough emanating from the mid MS Valley. East of the mid-level cyclone, a belt of enhanced southerly flow aloft will gradually overspread portions of the Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard into the evening and overnight hours. A broad surface low over the lower St Lawrence valley will weaken as a second low forms over the eastern Great Lakes. An associated diffuse cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the Appalachians toward the Atlantic Coast. ...Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic... Ahead of the cold front a moist air mass will remain in place with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Low-level warm air advection will favor cloudiness and only modest buoyancy with continued weak southerly surface winds. The stronger flow aloft is expected to arrive later in the diurnal cycle and will mainly be focused behind the cold front. Given the weak overall forcing and modest buoyancy, relatively isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected. Additional storms may develop along the front later in the evening, but little severe potential is expected owing to the weak buoyancy and poor overlap with stronger vertical shear. ...Southern New England... Farther north, a moist but cooler boundary layer will likely be in place ahead of the cold front from MA to southern NY. The humid environment could support very weak buoyancy immediately ahead of the front amid strengthening flow aloft. Frontal forcing is not expected to be overly strong, but could support a shallow convective band ahead of the front late in the evening and overnight. Some potential may exist for intermittent strong gusts to reach the surface, but confidence remains quite low. ...OK/TX... A weak vorticity max will move across OK on the southwestern flank of the larger-scale eastern trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will support weak elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms expected through the day and into the evening. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South TX, as the southern end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass near the Gulf. Weak shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe risk. ..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/05/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z