Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 051248 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery reveals several shortwave troughs within the active upper pattern across the CONUS. A southern-stream wave currently moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is forecast to become increasingly phased with another wave dropping through the Mid MS Valley, resulting in a unified upper trough from the Great Lakes/Ontario through the southern Plains by 00Z Friday. Northern-stream upper ridging west of this upper trough is forecast to move eastward over more of the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies while another quick-moving shortwave deepens as it moves into the Intermountain West. Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far western Quebec southward into far western PA before continuing south-southwestward to a weak low over the TN/NC border vicinity. Modest moisture exists downstream from this front, with mid 60s dewpoints across much of VA and low 60s dewpoints as far north as the Hudson Valley. Modest northward moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this cold front as it moves eastward today, supporting showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic into the New England. ...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast this morning into the early afternoon, ahead of a weak low-amplitude shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight, beginning along and ahead the front across the northern Mid-Atlantic before spreading northward into southern New England and southward into the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Buoyancy will be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates, widespread cloud cover and post peak heating frontal timing. Consequently, predominantly shallow, short-lived updrafts are anticipated. However, given the presence of moderately strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, any deeper convection could briefly produce damaging gusts. Anticipated isolated and brief nature of any severe threat currently precludes the need for any severe probabilities. ...OK/TX... As mentioned in the synopsis, the southern-stream wave currently moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is forecast to continue eastward across the OK vicinity today. Cool mid-level temperatures will support weak elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms expected through the day and into the evening. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South TX, as the southern end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass near the Gulf. Weak shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe risk. ..Mosier/Moore.. 11/05/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z