Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across AL, GA, KY, NC

SPC AC 041257 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a mature cyclone centered over the western MN/IA border vicinity. A shortwave trough is moving over the Ozarks within the base of this cyclone. This shortwave is forecast to pivot quickly northeastward then northward through the OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Another, lower amplitude shortwave trough is currently progressing eastward through the Lower MS Valley, with continued eastward/east-northeastward progress anticipated today. Recent surface analysis places the surface low associated with the Upper Midwest cyclone over far northwest WI, with a cold front arcing southeastward into far northeast IL then southward to another low over far eastern LA. A moist airmass precedes this cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints extending through western KY and low 60s dewpoints as far north as eastern WI. Thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this front as it moves eastward, with the highest thunderstorm coverage from central/eastern KY across middle/eastern TN into northern AL and GA. ...Northern AL/Middle TN into the southern Appalachians... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the moist and broadly confluence warm sector from MS/AL northward into IL/OH. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue within this region of confluent while also developing along the front. Buoyancy will be tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, but ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate vertical shear will be in place as well, with much of this shear confined below 700 mb. Given the moderate to strong low-level shear, this modified tropical airmass appears supportive of a low-probability tornado risk with thunderstorms along the cold front and within the prefrontal confluence zone. Primary limiting factor will be the confined updraft duration and strength resulting from poor lapse rates and associated low buoyancy. Even with this limiting factor, a few storms could briefly achieve the depth and duration need to produce a brief tornado, particularly from northeast AL across northern GA where stronger southeasterly surface wind are possible. A few convectively aided damaging gusts could occur across the region as well. ..Mosier/Moore.. 11/04/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z