Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Oct 11, 2026 at 11:38 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.9 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. South of Southern Mexico — 80% 7-day odds
- No longer tracked: 1. South of Southwestern Mexico (Eastern Pacific)
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 20%
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these islands southward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for development by midweek. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the sys
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 20% 7-day 80%
1. South of Southern Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern East Pacific are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111129
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Isaias, located near the border of Tennessee and Kentucky.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these
islands southward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of
this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become
too strong for development by midweek. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall will be possible during the next few days over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly
northward to north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111138
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Rachel, located inland over southern California and on
Hurricane Simon, located just offshore of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the
middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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