Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 12, 2026 at 17:03 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.9 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 20%
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms occurring on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system during the next day or so before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the C
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93) 48h 80% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico in the next two days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121703
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms occurring on its east
side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive
for development of this system during the next day or so before
upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on
Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the
next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands,
and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly
northward to north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121154
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, centered about 50 miles off the coast of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is gradually
becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
expected to form well south of southern Mexico in the next two days
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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