Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 11, 2026 at 23:09 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.9 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of Southern Mexico (Eastern Pacific): 80% → 90%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 20%
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system mo
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 30% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112309
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area
of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands
southwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of
this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become
too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy
rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to
north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111734
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, located just offshore of southwestern Mexico, and has issued
the final advisory on the remnants of Rachel, located inland over
Nevada.
South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico by the
middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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Oct 11, 2026 at 23:09 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤90%