Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 100% development odds
Issued Oct 12, 2026 at 23:07 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.9 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93) (Eastern Pacific): 90% → 100%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 20%
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large, but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flood
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93) 48h 100% 7-day 100%
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93): Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala. This system is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form well south of southern Mexico later tonight or tomorrow while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 p
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 122302
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large, but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms on its east side,
extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for
development of this system before upper-level winds become too
strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy
rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across
western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is
possible there as the system moves slowly northward to
north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122307
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, located within a hundred miles west of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Guatemala. This system is gradually becoming better defined, and
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to
form well south of southern Mexico later tonight or tomorrow while
the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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