Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 100% development odds
Issued Oct 13, 2026 at 05:19 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 32 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 20%
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large, but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flood
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93) 48h 100% 7-day 100%
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to show improved signs of organization with increased shower and thunderstorm activity. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development of the system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form well south of southern Mexico within the next day or so. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. Interests in southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 130519
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center. Further
development of this system appears unlikely as the low moves slowly
northward to north-northwestward and encounters stronger upper-level
winds today and tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is expected to continue today across western portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands with some flooding possible there.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130510
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, located less than one hundred miles west of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to show improved
signs of organization with increased shower and thunderstorm
activity. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for further development of the system, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form well south of southern Mexico
within the next day or so. The system is expected to move generally
west-northwestward around 10 mph. Interests in southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For
additional information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Katz/Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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