Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Oct 11, 2026 at 05:25 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Isaias — track & advisories →Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.9 by this date.
- New area in the Atlantic: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic — 20% 7-day odds
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 10% 7-day 20%
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from near those islands southward for several hundred miles. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while the low north-northwestward before upper-level winds become too strong for development by midweek. Very heavy rainfall is also possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands regardless of whether the system ever becomes a tr
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southwestern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 70%
1. South of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 110525
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, located inland over Tennessee.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered about 100 miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from
near those islands southward for several hundred miles. Some
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while the low north-northwestward before upper-level winds
become too strong for development by midweek. Very heavy rainfall
is also possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands regardless of whether the system ever becomes a
tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102350
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Punta
Baja, Mexico, and on Hurricane Simon, located less than one hundred
miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of
the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half
of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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