Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 12, 2026 at 11:32 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.9 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 20%
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, which are occurring on the east side of the low, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portio
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93) 48h 60% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala, accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has become better defined since yesterday, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico in a few days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121132
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, which are occurring
on the east side of the low, extending toward the westernmost Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally
conducive for any development of this system during the next day or
two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further
development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for
the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves
slowly northward to north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120531
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of the coast of Guatemala, accompanied by some shower and
thunderstorm activity. This system has become better defined since
yesterday, and environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
expected to form well south of southern Mexico in a few days while
the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Blake
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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