Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Nov 4, 2026 at 05:02 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · latest issuance · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 30 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 35.5 by this date.
- New area in the Atlantic: 1. Western and Central Atlantic — 40% 7-day odds
- Odds raised for 2. Eastern East Pacific (Eastern Pacific): 20% → 40%
- No longer tracked: 1. Western Atlantic (Atlantic)
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Western and Central Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 40%
1. Western and Central Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so along a weakening front a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week or this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance
Eastern Pacific
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95) 48h 50% 7-day 70%
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Eastern East Pacific 48h 20% 7-day 40%
2. Eastern East Pacific: An elongated trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America later this week and over the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032315
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western and Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so
along a weakening front a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. This
system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics late
this week or this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the
western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development. For more information on this system, including
Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
217
ABPZ20 KNHC 040502
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin is producing some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few
days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern East Pacific:
An elongated trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of
Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of Central America later this week and over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Nov 4, 2026 at 05:02 UTC — viewing
3 areas · ≤70%
Nov 3, 2026 at 23:10 UTC
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Nov 1, 2026 at 11:18 UTC
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