Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Oct 11, 2026 at 17:15 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.9 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 20%
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system mo
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 20% 7-day 80%
1. South of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111715
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these
islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some
development of this system over the next day or two before
upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by
midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few
days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves
slowly northward to north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111138
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Rachel, located inland over southern California and on
Hurricane Simon, located just offshore of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the
middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 14, 2026 at 17:22 UTC
0 areas
Oct 14, 2026 at 11:13 UTC
0 areas
Oct 14, 2026 at 05:17 UTC
0 areas
Oct 13, 2026 at 23:16 UTC
0 areas
Oct 13, 2026 at 17:05 UTC
1 area · ≤0%
Oct 13, 2026 at 11:17 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%
Oct 13, 2026 at 05:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%
Oct 12, 2026 at 23:07 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%
Oct 12, 2026 at 17:03 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 12, 2026 at 11:32 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 12, 2026 at 05:32 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 11, 2026 at 23:09 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%