StormTracking
Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 11, 2026 at 17:15 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds

Issued Oct 11, 2026 at 17:15 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

← Previous outlook Next outlook → Latest → Live map

Storms in this outlook: Hurricane Simon — track & advisories →

StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.9 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 20%

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system mo

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 20% 7-day 80%

1. South of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 111715 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Evans/Papin

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111138 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel, located inland over southern California and on Hurricane Simon, located just offshore of southwestern Mexico. South of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 14, 2026 at 17:22 UTC 0 areas Oct 14, 2026 at 11:13 UTC 0 areas Oct 14, 2026 at 05:17 UTC 0 areas Oct 13, 2026 at 23:16 UTC 0 areas Oct 13, 2026 at 17:05 UTC 1 area · ≤0% Oct 13, 2026 at 11:17 UTC 2 areas · ≤100% Oct 13, 2026 at 05:19 UTC 2 areas · ≤100% Oct 12, 2026 at 23:07 UTC 2 areas · ≤100% Oct 12, 2026 at 17:03 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 12, 2026 at 11:32 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 12, 2026 at 05:32 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 11, 2026 at 23:09 UTC 2 areas · ≤90%