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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 21, 2026 at 11:44 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Oct 21, 2026 at 11:44 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.5 by this date.

No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93) 48h 40% 7-day 40%

1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west and northwest of its center. Over the next day or two, the low could gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to possibly develop subtropical characteristics. By Friday, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, and environmental co

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. For additional information, including Gale Warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance through 48 hours...high

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 211142 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west and northwest of its center. Over the next day or two, the low could gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to possibly develop subtropical characteristics. By Friday, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 211144 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: South of Southern Mexico (EP94): Satellite imagery indicates that a low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity continues to become better organized, and if current trends persist, a tropical depression is expected to form later today. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, well offshore the coast of southern Mexico. For additional information, including Gale Warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form in the far western central Pacific a few hundred miles southwest of Johnson Atoll late this weekend of early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

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