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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 20, 2026 at 17:00 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Oct 20, 2026 at 17:00 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.3 by this date.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Offshore the East Coast of the United States (AL93) 48h 40% 7-day 40%

1. Offshore the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. Recent satellite wind data indicated the low is still frontal. Over the next couple of days, the low could develop some showers and thunderstorms near the low-level center and gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 201700 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Offshore the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. Recent satellite wind data indicated the low is still frontal. Over the next couple of days, the low could develop some showers and thunderstorms near the low-level center and gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 201700 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: South of Southern Mexico (EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Evans/Papin

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 20, 2026 at 17:00 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 11:39 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 05:05 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 23:25 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 17:43 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 11:46 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 05:08 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 18, 2026 at 23:38 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 18, 2026 at 17:28 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 18, 2026 at 11:38 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 18, 2026 at 05:07 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 17, 2026 at 23:21 UTC 2 areas · ≤80%