Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 20, 2026 at 11:39 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.3 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93) 48h 30% 7-day 40%
1. Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area remains attached to an occluded frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coast. This low could develop some organized deep convection and gradually lose its frontal features over the next couple of days while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for subtropical or tropical developm
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94): Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms are also beginning to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 200504
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area remains attached
to an occluded frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the North
Carolina coast. This low could develop some organized deep
convection and gradually lose its frontal features over the next
couple of days while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the
Gulf Stream. By the end of the week, the system is expected to
accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States,
where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for subtropical or tropical development.
Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal
flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S.
East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please
consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service
offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas
Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201139
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a
tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so.
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at
around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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