Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 19, 2026 at 17:43 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Off the East Coast of the United States 48h 0% 7-day 40%
1. Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly north-northeastward over the next couple of days. If the low remains over the Gulf Stream and becomes detached from the front, it could briefly acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics during the middle to latter portions of the week. The system is expected to move northeastward away from the the eastern United States later this week, and environmental conditions a
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 50% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Guatemala, remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191743
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a
frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the
United States. This low is likely to move slowly
north-northeastward over the next couple of days. If the low
remains over the Gulf Stream and becomes detached from the front, it
could briefly acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics
during the middle to latter portions of the week. The system is
expected to move northeastward away from the the eastern United
States later this week, and environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of
the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and
dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast
during the next few days. Please consult statements and warnings
from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather
Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas
Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191146
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Trudy, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of
west-central Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of Guatemala, remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around
the middle of this week as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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