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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 21, 2026 at 05:16 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Oct 21, 2026 at 05:16 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33.5 by this date.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93) 48h 40% 7-day 40%

1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. Satellite imagery indicates that the low is still frontal. Over the next couple of days, the low could gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94) 48h 90% 7-day 90%

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. For additional information, including Gale Warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance through 48 hours...high

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 210516 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west and northwest of its center. Satellite imagery indicates that the low is still frontal. Over the next day or two, the low could gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pierce/Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 245 ABPZ20 KNHC 210511 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: South of Southern Mexico (EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. For additional information, including Gale Warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Pierce/Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 21, 2026 at 05:16 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 23:33 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 17:00 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 11:39 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 20, 2026 at 05:05 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 23:25 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 17:43 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 11:46 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 05:08 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 18, 2026 at 23:38 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 18, 2026 at 17:28 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 18, 2026 at 11:38 UTC 2 areas · ≤80%