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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 19, 2026 at 23:25 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds

Issued Oct 19, 2026 at 23:25 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33 by this date.

Development areas (2)

Atlantic 1. Off the East Coast of the United States 48h 0% 7-day 40%

1. Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly north-northeastward over the next couple of days. If the low remains over the Gulf Stream and becomes detached from the front, it could briefly acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics during the middle to latter portions of the week. The system is expected to move northeastward away from the the eastern United States later this week, and environmental conditions a

Eastern Pacific 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94) 48h 80% 7-day 90%

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94): Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 191743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly north-northeastward over the next couple of days. If the low remains over the Gulf Stream and becomes detached from the front, it could briefly acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics during the middle to latter portions of the week. The system is expected to move northeastward away from the the eastern United States later this week, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 237 ABPZ20 KNHC 192325 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Trudy, located a couple of hundred miles west of west-central Mexico. South of Southern Mexico (EP94): Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Evans/Katz/Papin

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Oct 19, 2026 at 23:25 UTC — viewing 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 17:43 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 11:46 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 19, 2026 at 05:08 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 18, 2026 at 23:38 UTC 2 areas · ≤90% Oct 18, 2026 at 17:28 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 18, 2026 at 11:38 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 18, 2026 at 05:07 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 17, 2026 at 23:21 UTC 2 areas · ≤80% Oct 17, 2026 at 17:23 UTC 1 area · ≤70% Oct 17, 2026 at 11:38 UTC 1 area · ≤70% Oct 17, 2026 at 05:05 UTC 1 area · ≤70%