Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 19, 2026 at 05:08 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Trudy — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 33 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Off the East Coast of the United States (Atlantic): 30% → 40%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Off the East Coast of the United States 48h 0% 7-day 40%
1. Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically over the next couple of days, and it could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics if it remains over the Gulf Stream. A subtropical cyclone could form during the middle to latter portions of the week when the system begins to move northeastward away from the eastern United States. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for develo
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 20% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is developing well offshore to the south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward, remaining well south of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190501
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a
frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the
United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically
over the next couple of days, and it could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics if it remains over the Gulf Stream. A
subtropical cyclone could form during the middle to latter portions
of the week when the system begins to move northeastward away from
the eastern United States. Environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of
the system's status, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous
surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the
next few days. Please consult statements and warnings from local
National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center
for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm
Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190508
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 18 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Trudy, located about 150 miles offshore of the coast of Jalisco,
Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area
of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
Guatemala. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around
the middle of this week as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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Oct 19, 2026 at 05:08 UTC — viewing
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