Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Oct 18, 2026 at 23:38 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Trudy — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 32.6 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of Southern Mexico (Eastern Pacific): 80% → 90%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Off the East Coast of the United States 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form later today or tonight off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of this week, and some subtropical development is possible during that time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information,
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 20% 7-day 90%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is developing well offshore to the south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward, remaining well south of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 182338
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is developing along a
frontal boundary tonight off the southeast coast of the United
States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically over the
next couple of days while it initially remains non-tropical. Later
this week, if the system stays over the Gulf Stream, environmental
conditions could become more conducive for the low to develop some
subtropical characteristics. A subtropical cyclone could form over
the second half of this week as the system begins moving generally
northeastward, offshore of the eastern United States. Regardless of
development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding,
and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please
consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service
offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information,
along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182333
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 18 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Trudy, located offshore of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is developing well offshore to the south of
the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this
week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward, remaining
well south of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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