Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 90% development odds
Issued Nov 5, 2026 at 17:42 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 30 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 35.5 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. Eastern Central Pacific (CP95) — 90% 7-day odds
- Odds lowered for 2. Eastern East Pacific (Eastern Pacific): 60% → 50%
- No longer tracked: 1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95) (Eastern Pacific)
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Western and Central Atlantic 48h 30% 7-day 50%
1. Western and Central Atlantic: A broad, non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing some disorganized convection mainly to the east of its center. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued
Eastern Pacific
1. Eastern Central Pacific (CP95) 48h 90% 7-day 90%
1. Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop, possibly as soon as later today. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Eastern East Pacific 48h 40% 7-day 50%
2. Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that remain disorganized. Gradual development of this system is still possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051149
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western and Central Atlantic:
A broad, non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles
south of Bermuda is producing some disorganized convection mainly to
the east of its center. Environmental conditions could support this
system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this
weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central
subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more
information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051742
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Eastern Central Pacific (CP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of
Hawaii continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is expected to develop, possibly as soon as later today. The system
is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph,
passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that remain
disorganized. Gradual development of this system is still possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central
America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring
areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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