Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Nov 3, 2026 at 23:10 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 30 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 35.3 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Western Atlantic (Atlantic): 30% → 40%
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Western Atlantic 48h 20% 7-day 40%
1. Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles south of Bermuda over the next day or so. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week or this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western to central Subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance thr
Eastern Pacific
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95) 48h 40% 7-day 70%
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph moving into the Central Pacific basin. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Eastern East Pacific 48h 10% 7-day 20%
2. Eastern East Pacific: An elongated trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America later this week and over the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031712
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening
frontal boundary a few hundred miles south of Bermuda over the next
day or so. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical
characteristics late this week or this weekend while it moves slowly
eastward over the western to central Subtropical Atlantic. By early
next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development. For more information on this
system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032310
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern East Pacific:
An elongated trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of
Central America. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days while it drifts northward. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to
portions of Central America later this week and over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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