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Live tracking · Tropical Weather Outlook · Nov 5, 2026 at 11:46 UTC

Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds

Issued Nov 5, 2026 at 11:46 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours

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StormTracking analysis

The 2026 season has produced 30 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 35.5 by this date.

Development areas (3)

Atlantic 1. Western and Central Atlantic 48h 30% 7-day 50%

1. Western and Central Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure area is located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30

Eastern Pacific 1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95) 48h 80% 7-day 80%

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. While earlier satellite wind data suggested the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is now likely to form over the next day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through

Eastern Pacific 2. Eastern East Pacific 48h 40% 7-day 60%

2. Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have not become any better organized over the past day. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. Formation chance through

Official NHC text — Atlantic

en Español 000 ABNT20 KNHC 050502 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Western and Central Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure area is located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific

en Español 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 051146 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. While earlier satellite wind data suggested the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is now likely to form over the next day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have not become any better organized over the past day. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin

Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.

Recent issuances

Nov 5, 2026 at 11:46 UTC — viewing 3 areas · ≤80% Nov 5, 2026 at 05:02 UTC 3 areas · ≤70% Nov 4, 2026 at 23:30 UTC 3 areas · ≤70% Nov 4, 2026 at 17:32 UTC 3 areas · ≤70% Nov 4, 2026 at 11:49 UTC 3 areas · ≤70% Nov 4, 2026 at 05:02 UTC 3 areas · ≤70% Nov 3, 2026 at 23:10 UTC 3 areas · ≤70% Nov 3, 2026 at 17:01 UTC 3 areas · ≤70% Nov 3, 2026 at 11:34 UTC 2 areas · ≤70% Nov 3, 2026 at 05:08 UTC 2 areas · ≤70% Nov 2, 2026 at 23:08 UTC 2 areas · ≤70% Nov 2, 2026 at 17:07 UTC 2 areas · ≤70%