Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Nov 5, 2026 at 11:46 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 30 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 35.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95) (Eastern Pacific): 70% → 80%
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Western and Central Atlantic 48h 30% 7-day 50%
1. Western and Central Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure area is located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30
Eastern Pacific
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95) 48h 80% 7-day 80%
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. While earlier satellite wind data suggested the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is now likely to form over the next day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through
Eastern Pacific
2. Eastern East Pacific 48h 40% 7-day 60%
2. Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have not become any better organized over the past day. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. Formation chance through
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 050502
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western and Central Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure area is located a few hundred miles
south of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support this
system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this
weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central
subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For
more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051146
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located over the eastern
portion of the Central Pacific basin. While earlier satellite wind
data suggested the system does not yet have a well-defined
circulation, environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression is now likely to form
over the next day or so while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the
Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Eastern East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have not
become any better organized over the past day. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts
slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of Central America through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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