Tropical Weather Outlook: 3 areas being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Nov 4, 2026 at 17:32 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 30 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 35.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. Western and Central Atlantic (Atlantic): 40% → 50%
- Odds raised for 2. Eastern East Pacific (Eastern Pacific): 40% → 50%
Development areas (3)
Atlantic
1. Western and Central Atlantic 48h 30% 7-day 50%
1. Western and Central Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure area is located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30
Eastern Pacific
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95) 48h 50% 7-day 70%
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): An area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern Pacific
2. Eastern East Pacific 48h 30% 7-day 50%
2. Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041732
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western and Central Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure area is located a few hundred miles
south of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support this
system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this
weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central
subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For
more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
638
ABPZ20 KNHC 041151
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95):
An area of low pressure located over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next
few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of
Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of Central America through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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