Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 131249 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Southwest States including southern Arizona... A southern-stream shortwave trough near the SoCal/northern Baja coast will continue generally eastward along the international border, while a more prominent upper trough amplifies a bit more along the West Coast toward the Great Basin. Ahead of the southern stream trough, isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable by late morning into the afternoon across southern Arizona as forcing for ascent overspreads a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. A few stronger low-topped storms could develop/spread north-northeastward into south-central/southeast Arizona by around mid-afternoon. Some small hail and/or gusty winds are plausible, but current thinking is that organized severe thunderstorm potential will be curbed by a trend of weakening low/mid-tropospheric flow into this afternoon (effective shear 25 kt or less), along with the relatively cool thermal profiles and perceived limitations on downdraft intensity. A bit later in the day, a somewhat stronger combination of deep-layer winds and lapse rates/buoyancy could also contribute to some stronger storm potential toward the Rio Grande River valley of southern New Mexico and far west Texas, but overall severe potential should remain low. Across northern California, while lightning flash potential will likely remain limited, some convective enhancement to the inland-spreading precipitation may influence some stronger near-coastal wind gusts. Additional low-topped convection is expected as lapse rates steepen within the post-frontal environment later today for near-coastal areas and possibly parts of the interior valley. ..Guyer/Mead.. 11/13/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z