Severe weather outlook: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms across IN, KY

SPC AC 120040 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail, and perhaps locally gusty winds, may be maintained across parts of west central into southeastern Kentucky and adjacent northern Tennessee into at least late evening. ...01z Update... Low-level moisture return to the warm sector of a modest (but forecast to continue deepening) surface cyclone migrating through the lower Ohio Valley has remained rather limited, at least where forcing for ascent in the exit region of a 70-80+ kt cyclonic mid-level jet has been sufficient to contribute to thunderstorm development. With diurnal surface cooling now underway, it remains unclear the extent to which mid-level cooling will maintain sufficient destabilization to support a continuing risk for marginally severe hail. However, despite a rapid transition to a prominent westerly component to the flow from the surface through around 850 mb, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests deeper boundary-layer moistening is still possible into late evening along the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level forcing overspreading the south central into southeastern Kentucky/adjacent Tennessee vicinity. If this occurs, thermodynamic profiles supportive of a continuing risk for severe hail and locally gusty winds might be maintained. ..Kerr.. 11/12/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z