Severe weather outlook: no organized severe threat

SPC AC 130510 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough near the California coast this morning will shift east toward the southern Rockies by Saturday morning. Cooling aloft will support weak instability across portions of southern AZ/NM to Far West TX. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with the dewpoints generally in the 40s and 50s F. This will support scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon across southern AZ/NM, spreading eastward toward southwest TX by late afternoon/early evening. Southerly deep-layer flow is forecast, with effective shear magnitudes generally around 20-25 kt. Modest shear and instability will likely limit severe potential, though gusty winds and small hail could occur with the strongest storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of coastal OR into northern/central CA as a second upper shortwave trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. A lightning flash or two is possible during the nighttime hours from central CA into the Great Basin, but overall coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent. ..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/13/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z