Severe weather outlook: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms across DE, MD, NJ, PA

SPC AC 121619 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe hail, a tornado or two, and perhaps damaging winds may impact parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. ...Eastern PA/NJ/Northern DE... Latest surface analysis shows a developing surface low over northern VA. This low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day and track eastward across NJ as a potent shortwave trough moves into the region. The zone near the surface low and extending eastward along the surface warm front will be a focused region of ascent and destabilization this afternoon, with forecast soundings showing MLCAPE of 500-900 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and considerable low-level shear/helicity profiles. A consensus of morning HRRR/RRFS/REFS solutions show the development of isolated supercell storms in this focused area. The risk area is quite small, but given the consistent guidance have opted for a small SLGT risk to cover the potential threats. Hail is probably the main concern with any persistent supercell structure, but a tornado or two is also possible. Refer to MCD #2451 for further details. ..Hart/Dean.. 11/12/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z