Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across TX

SPC AC 101619 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along the Middle to Upper Texas Coast tonight. ...TX Coast... Recent surface analysis places an inverted trough just off the Lower TX Coast. Warm-air advection near this trough is supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings show a deep and moist boundary layer atop relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb). Enhanced mid-level flow exists above 700 mb as well, contributing to moderate shear within the cloud bearing layer. These factors could support isolated updrafts capable of marginally severe hail through the early afternoon. Weakening warm-air advection should lead to weakening thunderstorm coverage and intensity during the late afternoon/early evening. The weak vorticity maximum currently over the TX South Plains will drift southeastward today, interacting with this more moist and buoyant airmass along the coast around 00Z. Ascent associated with this wave coupled with modest warm-air advection will likely result in increasing thunderstorm coverage after 00Z. Mid-level temperatures will cool slightly as well, supporting an increase in the elevated buoyancy across the region. Mid-level flow throughout this layer will remain strong, with cloud-bearing layer shear over 50 kt. These environmental conditions appear supportive of marginally severe hail within any of the more persistent updrafts. ...Elsewhere... Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection that will move quickly east-northeastward across parts of coastal WA today in tandem with another mid-level shortwave trough, but very weak instability will limit the severe threat with this activity. Late afternoon thunderstorms are also possible within the moist confluent flow over the central/southern FL Peninsula. A few flashes are also possible near the center of the TX vorticity maximum over central/north-central TX this afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorm coverage in this region is currently expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier/Halbert-K.. 11/10/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z