Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across TX

SPC AC 110041 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along portions of the Middle and Upper Texas Coast tonight. ...Middle and Upper Texas Coast... Water vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough currently moving through South TX with a downstream belt of forcing for ascent expected to yield an increase in storm coverage and intensity tonight over the coastal plain and adjacent near-shore waters. In the low levels, a weak cyclone may deepen over the shelf water along a baroclinic zone pivoting toward the coast. The strongest storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of those features, which will coincide with greater surface-based buoyancy. Onshore instability will remain more limited and elevated atop a stable near-surface inversion. The 00Z CRP and BRO soundings are likely representative of the ambient thermodynamic environment with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and a modestly steep lapse-rate profile noted in the 600-500 mb layer at CRP. The current KHGX VWP is sampling generally 35-50 kt west-southwesterly winds above 4 km, which are contributing sufficient deep-layer shear to support episodic supercell structures embedded within the broader convective shield. Marginally severe hail will be the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ..Mead.. 11/11/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z