Severe weather outlook: Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across AL, GA, NC, SC

SPC AC 040534 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Ozarks into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the trough, a warm front will move northward from the central Gulf Coast states into the southern Appalachians. Near the front, a cluster of strong storms is expected to develop in the morning from northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia. As the front moves eastward, a persistent confluence band is expected to setup from central Georgia northward into the southern Appalachians. Although abundant cloud cover will temper surface heating, RAP forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg near the confluence band during the afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2 could be enough for isolated severe gusts and/or a brief tornado. The threat is expected to decrease by early evening. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/04/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z