Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Nov 3, 2026 at 11:34 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 30 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 35.3 by this date.
No changes in tracked areas since the previous issuance.
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Western Atlantic 48h 10% 7-day 30%
1. Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles south of Bermuda over the next day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts slowly over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development decrease by this weekend when the system is expected to move generally eastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Pacific
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 48h 40% 7-day 70%
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph into the Central Pacific basin. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031134
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening
frontal boundary a few hundred miles south of Bermuda over the next
day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical
characteristics late this week while it drifts slowly over the
western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development decrease by
this weekend when the system is expected to move generally eastward
into unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031132
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days as it moves westward to
west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph into the Central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
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